In an effort to fuel the declining economy, the Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has cut interest rates from 4.5% to 0.5% (within 15 months). The idea is that other banks will also be influenced to change their rates, giving people more incentive and a better chance at borrowing money, as well as paying it back. Statistics Canada report indicated that Canada’s economy had shrank by 3.4%, and while lowering interest rates are supposed to stimulate the economy, there will be a slow (12 to 18 months) or very minimal effect. The decline in the last quarter of 2008 has been the biggest since the recession of 1991 and Prime Minister Stephen Harper will only comment, "the economic plan of the minister of finance has spoken very clearly about the government's views on this and our action plan to deal with it."
GDP refers to the value of goods and services produced in Canada in a given year. When the level of savings and investments equal, GDP is said to be at an equilibrium (or stable). In an economic recession, people tend to try and save money which reduces the amount of money circulating (for businesses). Without consumers spending, businesses must cut back on production or lay off workers to maintain their profit (cutting costs). This reduces the flow of money to consumers and households have a lower amount of disposable income. If people do not spend money, business investment (spending) also decreases. When there is little investment, the GDP falls. With lower interest rates, consumer spending should increase because it is sometimes necessary for people to borrow money before they spend it. With low interest rates, the cost of borrowing is little (barely anything at 0.5% interest) and the opportunity cost of not saving is also less.
In most households, spending is determined by future prices and levels of income. During a recession, future incomes are definately not secure which leads people to believe that they need to save now so they will be ready to absorb a likely job loss. With lower bank rates, consumers are only affected indirectly and only affects consumers who are willing to spend money during a recession. Consumers don't benefit right away (like they do if the PST or GST is declined) which is what they need now to reassure them that they should be spending. I think that decreasing interest rates are a good thing, especially in the long run because recessions don't go away overnight. Eventually, as the situation gets worse, people will have the ability to obtain credit and spend money.
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